报告人：Frank Pattyn（比利时布鲁塞尔自由大学 教授）

时间：2025年4月9日（周三） 15:30-17:00

地点：测绘馆401会议室

报告简介：

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, and ice loss will likely continue over the coming decades and centuries. Some regions of the ice sheet may reach a tipping point, potentially leading to rates of sea level rise at least an order of magnitude larger than those observed now, owing to strong positive feedbacks in the ice-climate system. How fast and how much Antarctica will contribute to sea level remains uncertain, but multimeter sea level rise is likely for a mean global temperature increase of around 2°C above preindustrial levels on multicentennial time scales, or sooner for unmitigated scenarios.

Here, we give an overview of recent projections of the Antarctic ice sheet on time scales ranging from decades to multi-millennial periods and show that on longer time scales, uncertainties in ice dynamics are greatly reduced due to the commitment of ice sheet change. Uncertainties in projections pertain to the forcing (ocean and atmosphere) on the one hand and the processes (known and unknown) that control the rate of mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet, such as subglacial processes, calving and damage. We detail on how our knowledge on such processes can be improved.

报告人简介：

Frank Pattyn is a glaciologist/ice-sheet modeller and director of the Laboratoire de Glaciologie of the ULB. His research focuses on improving projections of the contribution of large ice sheets (especially Antarctica) to future sea-level rise. He developed a number of ice-sheet models, such as the Blatter-Pattyn model, capable of simulating the behaviour of fast-flowing ice streams and ice flow across subglacial lakes. He is also actively involved in a series of Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Projects (ISMIP), such as ISMIP-HOM, ISMIP-HEINO, MISMIP, MISMIP3D, and ABUMIP. He is currently Chairman of the Belgian National Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR delegate) and Associate Chief Editor of Journal of Glaciology.